On the way back from a business meeting yesterday, I had the dubious luck of hearing the local conservative radio talk show host rant about Arlen Specter’s defection to the Democratic Party. Besides repeating the wingnut talking point that Specter switched parties because he knew former Congressman Pat Toomey would beat him in a Republican Primary, he also went on for about ten minutes about all the other RINOs he thinks should switch–guys like Chuck Hagel. He is not alone.
As Professor Sabato pointed out, conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot. Of course, some part of Senator Specter’s calculation included his own political self-interest and his slim chances of winning a primary against Toomey. But conservatives who care about the direction of public policy in the US should quietly applaud Specter’s move.
Toomey cannot win a general election in Pennsylvania. The state is trending liberal, and Toomey is a Club for Growth conservative with all the standard right-wing/corporatist/social conservative positions on taxation, collective action, abortion, bankruptcy, crime, gay marriage, and other issues. This means that without a Specter switch, Pennsylvania would probably elect a more liberal senator next year. As it happens, Specter will probably win a Democratic primary and defeat Toomey in the general election, keeping the state’s Senate members to the right of the median Senator.
Conservatives like Doc Thomspon and Limbaugh apparently think that shrinking the party will make it stronger. But making it more ideologically homogenous will not help the GOP’s election chances, except in places with strong conservative majorities. Crazy rants and strident ideology do not attract new supporters. So keep preaching to the choir, Doc, and the GOP will keep losing.